Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone close by, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a assumption understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
